Retail Media · Strategy · Measurement
Retail Media Is Growing Fast.
But Too Many RMNs Still Cannot Prove What Changed.
Retail media is clearly having its moment.
The market is expanding. Retailers are building networks quickly. Brands are investing more in retail-owned media channels. And for many leadership teams, RMN has moved from an interesting side initiative to a serious strategic priority.
That growth is substantial. "eMarketer projected US retail media ad spend at $58.79 billion in 2025 and $69.33 billion in 2026." That tells me two things: the opportunity is real, and the scrutiny will only increase.
But growth, by itself, does not make a model durable.
What matters now is whether retail media is being built on the right foundation. This is where I believe the market still has work to do.
Too many retail media networks are being built with advertising logic embedded in businesses that ultimately run on transactions, product movement, margins, merchant relationships, and vendor economics. That mismatch may not show up early, when the market is growing quickly, and budgets are still expanding. But it becomes much more visible as the category matures and expectations rise.
At some point, every RMN has to answer a harder question:
What changed in the business because of this campaign?
That is where credibility starts to separate the stronger RMNs from the weaker ones.
Retailers already possess one of the most valuable assets in commerce: actual transaction behavior. They know what sold, when it sold, in which store or channel, and often to which customer or customer segment. They understand product affinity, basket behavior, repeat-purchase patterns, and, in many cases, vendor economics as well.
That should be the strategic advantage.
In many organizations, retail media remains too disconnected from reality. The reporting may be polished, the campaign decks may look impressive, and the media inventory may be appealing. However, when vendors, merchants, or finance teams begin asking more commercially focused questions, the answers are often less comprehensive than they should be.
This is why I do not believe the future of RMN will be won simply by the scale of inventory.
It will be won on the quality of the proof.
The more advanced retail media networks will be those that can link media activities to transaction-level results in a way that internal leaders and external brand partners find credible. Not always perfectly, but reliably, consistently, and with enough commercial rigor so that the discussion shifts from media performance to business results.
That shift matters.
Because if RMN is treated only as a monetization layer, it risks becoming a tactical revenue stream. Useful, yes. Strategic, no. However, if it is built on transaction truth, customer behavior, and vendor relevance, it becomes something more important: a growth capability that the business can defend.
That is the opportunity. The next phase of retail media is not about proving that the category is growing.
The market already knows that. The next phase is about proving that the model deserves long-term confidence from vendors, merchants, finance leaders, and the executive team.
That is a higher bar. And it is the right one.
Source note: eMarketer, Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast and Trends H2 2025 (Nov. 5, 2025).
The market is expanding. Retailers are building networks quickly. Brands are investing more in retail-owned media channels. And for many leadership teams, RMN has moved from an interesting side initiative to a serious strategic priority.
That growth is substantial. "eMarketer projected US retail media ad spend at $58.79 billion in 2025 and $69.33 billion in 2026." That tells me two things: the opportunity is real, and the scrutiny will only increase.
But growth, by itself, does not make a model durable.
What matters now is whether retail media is being built on the right foundation. This is where I believe the market still has work to do.
Too many retail media networks are being built with advertising logic embedded in businesses that ultimately run on transactions, product movement, margins, merchant relationships, and vendor economics. That mismatch may not show up early, when the market is growing quickly, and budgets are still expanding. But it becomes much more visible as the category matures and expectations rise.
At some point, every RMN has to answer a harder question:
What changed in the business because of this campaign?
That is where credibility starts to separate the stronger RMNs from the weaker ones.
Retailers already possess one of the most valuable assets in commerce: actual transaction behavior. They know what sold, when it sold, in which store or channel, and often to which customer or customer segment. They understand product affinity, basket behavior, repeat-purchase patterns, and, in many cases, vendor economics as well.
That should be the strategic advantage.
In many organizations, retail media remains too disconnected from reality. The reporting may be polished, the campaign decks may look impressive, and the media inventory may be appealing. However, when vendors, merchants, or finance teams begin asking more commercially focused questions, the answers are often less comprehensive than they should be.
This is why I do not believe the future of RMN will be won simply by the scale of inventory.
It will be won on the quality of the proof.
The more advanced retail media networks will be those that can link media activities to transaction-level results in a way that internal leaders and external brand partners find credible. Not always perfectly, but reliably, consistently, and with enough commercial rigor so that the discussion shifts from media performance to business results.
That shift matters.
Because if RMN is treated only as a monetization layer, it risks becoming a tactical revenue stream. Useful, yes. Strategic, no. However, if it is built on transaction truth, customer behavior, and vendor relevance, it becomes something more important: a growth capability that the business can defend.
That is the opportunity. The next phase of retail media is not about proving that the category is growing.
The market already knows that. The next phase is about proving that the model deserves long-term confidence from vendors, merchants, finance leaders, and the executive team.
That is a higher bar. And it is the right one.
Source note: eMarketer, Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast and Trends H2 2025 (Nov. 5, 2025).